Dollar Hits 100.00 After Hawkish Fed Hike; Focus Shifts to BoE & BoJ

Ultima Markets Daily Market Insights – 17 September 2026

Markets are digesting the aftermath of the Fed’s first rate hike since July 2023, delivered Wednesday, and the reaction has been a genuine mixed bag — hawkish on the surface, but with some encouraging signs underneath as oil eases on fresh Middle East diplomacy hints.

Fed Delivers First Hike Since 2023: A Hawkish Signal

The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate hike since July 2023 on Wednesday, as the market widely expected.

• Unanimous 25 bps Hike: The FOMC voted unanimously (12-0) to raise the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points, bringing it to 3.75%–4.00%, accompanied by hawkish commentary.
• Updated Dot Plot Projections: Revised dot plot projections signal one additional 25 bps hike before year-end, signaling persistent inflation concerns.
• Hawkish Policy Tone: Fed Chair Warsh promised the committee would “deliver price stability” — markets read the overall tone as distinctly hawkish, propelling the U.S. Dollar Index to hit the 100.00 milestone.

What About Today’s Market?

With the Dollar touching 100.00 on the hawkish Fed outcome, Dollar momentum remains solid, but traders now watch whether gains can extend further.

With the Bank of England (BoE) rate decision later today and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) tomorrow, these upcoming central bank meetings represent the next macro catalysts that will determine whether the Dollar’s advantage widens or narrows against other majors.

Meanwhile, President Trump stated that the U.S. is nearing the end of the war and claimed direct talks are underway with Iran. While unconfirmed, these geopolitical headlines act as another wildcard for energy markets and broad risk sentiment.

FX & Commodities Technical Insights

U.S. Dollar Index (USDX): Firmly Supported by Hawkish Fed Outcome

The Greenback remains firmly bullish following the Fed’s rate decision, with the upcoming BoE and BoJ meetings serving as the immediate macro catalysts to determine if the Dollar’s advantage widens or narrows against other majors as the Dollar Index approaches the 100-mark.

USDX, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

USDX momentum remains solid after reaching the 100.00 psychological barrier. Holding above the 99.50 support base preserves the near-term bullish structure. A sustained break above 100.00 opens the technical path toward 100.40 – 100.50, whereas a failure to clear 100.00 could trigger a brief consolidation pull-back toward 99.50.

Outlook: The overall outlook for the Dollar now remains undoubtedly bullish. Traders can watch for any dip-buying opportunity into the 99.77 area, while a solid hold above 100.00 would see intraday momentum tracking higher.

GBP/USD: BoE Rate Decision in Spotlight Ahead of Key Technical Defense

Cable comes under pressure following Dollar strength, with market focus turning to today’s Bank of England policy announcement and vote split.

GBPUSD, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

As the BoE decision approaches, GBP/USD faces increased downside vulnerability beneath the 1.3400 – 1.3430 area after yesterday’s breakdown.

If the BoE outcome leans dovish or fails to deliver any hawkish tone on its policy path (a hold is widely expected now), price action risks breaking down toward lower structural support at 1.3400 – 1.3380. Conversely, a hawkish vote split could provide intraday relief, lifting Cable back to above 1.3400, where traders will need to monitor if 1.3400 can hold.

Outlook: For GBP/USD, the technical stance remains bearish. Any rebound favors a “short the rally” strategy unless GBP/USD can successfully reclaim the 1.3400 – 1.3430 zone.

Gold (XAU/USD): Volatility Spikes as $4,300 Base on Watch

The sharp volatility reflects genuine tension between hawkish Fed policy and broader market uncertainty, though support holding near $4,300 keeps the bias from shifting fully bearish for now.

XAUUSD, H2 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Gold experienced heightened two-way volatility post-FOMC, but price action continues to validate critical baseline support at $4,250 – $4,300.

As long as buyers defend the current structural floor, the technical posture avoids a full bearish breakdown, keeping prices in a bearish-to-consolidation range. A break below $4,300 would expose $4,250 or lower, while reclaiming $4,300 with a daily close above is required to ease immediate sell-side pressure.

Market Summary & Key Highlights Today

Overall, market sentiment is driven by the hawkish Fed policy stance and the Dollar’s test of the 100.00 level. Intraday momentum will depend on central bank catalysts from the BoE today and the BoJ tomorrow.

For today’s outlook, current asset momentum is expected to stay intact unless we see a clear price action shift in the mentioned assets.

What to Watch Today:

• Bank of England Rate Decision & Vote Split: Watch for hawkish dissents or policy guidance that could impact Cable momentum.
• U.S. Dollar Index at 100.00 Barrier: Monitor whether USDX secures a breakout above 100.00 or consolidates above 99.50.
• GBP/USD Key Floor at 1.3400: Observe whether buyers defend 1.3400 upon the BoE statement.
• Gold Baseline Support at $4,300: Track whether bullion holds $4,300 amid post-Fed volatility and geopolitics.

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.